Six bouts -- four of them at lightweight or below -- fill out the dark portion of UFC 126 “Silva vs. Belfort” on Saturday at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas.
Perhaps it signals a sea change in which the promotion offers its slots and focuses its efforts on building stars at 135, 145 and 155 pounds. Among those included on the UFC 126 lineup are the world-ranked Michihiro Omigawa, Japanese superstar Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto and former World Extreme Cagefighting stalwarts Donald Cerrone, Chad Mendes and Demetrious Johnson.
Here is a closer look at the matches, previews and picks.
The matchup: If the UFC’s featherweight division were a corporation, it would be in “re-org” mode. While CEO/champion Jose Aldo remains the undisputed boss of the bunch, even as he recovers from a back injury, there is no clear distinction of who’s got next or a clear pecking order for contenders down the line.
This is where Mendes has a major opportunity to separate himself from the pack. With Josh Grispi losing at UFC 125 and Mike Thomas Brown falling twice in three weeks, Mendes and Mark Hominick are the remaining logical choices to challenge next. Hominick has already been penciled in to meet Aldo at UFC 129 in April. Mendes, with a victory here, could be next in line.
Mendes has made a steady progression from prospect to contender, passing successively difficult tests against Cub Swanson and Javier Vasquez. In both matches, he showed that will be extremely tough to beat against fighters who cannot keep it standing.
Omigawa, enjoying a renaissance at 145 pounds, has proven exceptionally durable and has a deceptive record, with many of his losses coming to high-caliber competition. His stand-up is not likely to give Mendes enough trouble to keep him vertical, which could lead to be his planted on the mat repeatedly.
The Pick: Mendes could boost his argument for a title shot considerably with a stoppage here. He is the choice by third-round technical knockout.
Vitor Belfort (left) and Anderson Silva | Sherdog.com
When champions step into the cage or ring to defend their belts, fans love an element of danger. That is precisely what Anderson Silva faces in challenger Vitor Belfort. Attempting to make the eighth defense of his UFC middleweight crown at UFC 126 on Saturday at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, “The Spider” meets a unique kind of threat in Belfort, whose speed and power are unlike anyone else’s in the sport.
This match brings a compelling challenge for the champion, as well as the offer of considerable redemption for Belfort, who, along with flashes of unabated brilliance, has suffered from setbacks and letdown performances as often as he has thrilled fans. Whether the “new” Belfort is the “old” Belfort is a subject much-discussed; Silva is the ultimate proving ground for it.
With that in mind, let us get to the main card, previews and picks.
The Matchup: On paper, the only way you could design a better fighter than Belfort to win this would be by giving him a high-level wrestling pedigree. That is because Belfort has legendary hands, explosive power and great submission awareness and jiu-jitsu, a skill largely overshadowed by his highlight-reel knockouts. Silva, coming off a miracle comeback win over Chael Sonnen at UFC 117 in August, sits on the longest unbeaten streak in the history of the UFC -- 12 bouts and 12 victories -- and a record seven defenses. Long wanted by fans, this matchup finally comes to fruition. Do not go to the fridge.
Belfort, forever hot and cold in his performances, returned to the UFC with a one-round blitz of ex-champion Rich Franklin, showing the Mike Tysonesque form that made him a star at 19 years old. With Silva’s modest-at-best wrestling being the only chink in his armor, the champion possesses the ability to stay cool under fire and absorb big shots at will. One might think Belfort’s best chance is to stand here, but he might have a better chance using his hands to close the gap and take Silva to the ground, where he can grind him down.
Standing, Belfort’s hands are amazingly potent, but over the long haul, Silva has too many weapons and makes too many clever adjustments. He uses range perfectly, delivering numbing counter shots opponents do not see. Plus, he switches from southpaw to orthodox as it suits him, with little drop-off in his effectiveness. Belfort’s chances to win this one fade considerably as the fight progresses, and Silva will plant doubt in his head in an extended stand-up fight.
The Pick: If Belfort goes for takedowns, he could wear out Silva, as Sonnen did, and then look for a stoppage later in the fight. However, “The Phenom” just is not wired that way. Silva will have some tough moments and then explode, delivering a barrage in the third round to retain his title.
Read on for the UFC 126 Main Card Fantasy Preview... ANDERSON SILVA VS. VITOR BELFORT Originally slated for UFC 108 and then for UFC 112, the long-awaited bout between Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort finally takes place this Saturday in Las Vegas. The middleweight clash will mark 1,842 days since an Anderson Silva opponent has had his arm raised in victory. The Spider’s last loss came in January of 2006 when he fought Yushin Okami and was disqualified for using an illegal upkick that rendered Okami unable to continue.
Like all fighters, the taste of defeat is something Silva never wants to experience again. That has become quite evident in Silva’s actions inside the Octagon since his 49-second knockout victory over Chris Leben in his UFC debut back in the summer of 2006. Presently riding a UFC record 12-fight winning streak, Silva holds notable victories over Nate Marquardt, Rich Franklin (twice), Forrest Griffin, and Chael Sonnen. Over his nearly five year UFC winning streak, Silva has made fights look so easy that people started to question whether or not he’d have the heart to win a fight if he needed to come from behind. Silva answered that question with flying colors back at UFC 117 when he defeated Chael Sonnen. A week prior to the fight, Silva’s doctor suggested that he cancel his fight due to a rib injury. Wanting the show to go on, Silva sidestepped the medical advice and entered the Octagon. The rib hindrance may be why Silva didn’t look like the fighter UFC fans have become accustomed to seeing fight that night. For nearly 23 minutes Sonnen dominated Silva. Right when it looked as if “The Spider” was going to lose his belt, he secured a triangle submission victory that no one saw coming. If Silva is able to win his 13th straight it will add another chapter to his storied career. Vitor Belfort, a former UFC light heavyweight champion, is looking to add the UFC middleweight crown to his list of accomplishments. There are few fighters, let alone people, that can even remotely understand what Belfort has dealt with in his life. After winning a UFC heavyweight tournament at just 19, Belfort looked like he was poised to have a long and successful career in the UFC. Then Randy Couture issued him his first defeat two fights later. While dealing with private family issues, Belfort jumped from multiple fight organizations –showing only glimpses of the fighter who had earned the nickname, “The Phenom.” After being away from the UFC for over four years, Belfort returned in exciting fashion – knocking former middleweight champion Rich Franklin out in a little over three minutes at UFC 103. It was that performance that eventually won Belfort a shot at dethroning his Brazilian countryman. In a bout that has all the makings of a “Fight of the Night”, fans could be in for an all-out 25-minute war when Silva and Belfort meet in the center of the Octagon Saturday night. Although Belfort is known for his knockout power and hand speed, it’ll be interesting to see if Belfort tries to mix up the action by bringing the fight to the canvas. Both fighters own black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so potential submission attempts may not be out of the question. Look for Silva, on the other hand, to enter the Octagon with his usual game plan. Although Belfort is considered to be the best striker Silva has faced in his UFC career, the champion believes his reach advantage and unorthodox striking will be the difference in this fight. RICH FRANKLIN VS. FORREST GRIFFIN On paper, Saturday’s fight between Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin is a seemingly equal fight that could end up being a 15-minute war. But don’t be surprised if a one-sided domination breaks out. With both fighters claiming they’re perfectly healthy leading up to the scrap, it’ll be interesting to see if Griffin’s shoulder and foot injury or Franklin’s broken arm that he received blocking a kick from Chuck Liddell last June play any role in Saturday night’s bout. Former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin, who defended his belt on two occasions, is coming off a highlight reel knockout over Chuck Liddell. After losing both fights to Anderson Silva in devastating fashion, Franklin and his camp decided that having to cut less weight might jumpstart his career. After wavering on the decision, Franklin finally decided that a move to the light heavyweight division would give him the best opportunity to put UFC gold back around his waist. In his career, Franklin has gone 18-3-1 in the light heavyweight division and he plans to add a 19th win to his light heavyweight division record come Saturday night. Winner of season one of The Ultimate Fighter, Forrest Griffin gained instant stardom while fans were captivated by his personality each week on Spike TV. It was Griffin’s jaw-dropping, epic victory over Stephan Bonner that put the UFC on the map and led him on the quick path to becoming one of the most popular figures in UFC history. After climbing atop the division, Griffin was probably on a short list of people who believed he’d beat Brazilian standout Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. After that win, Griffin once again was the underdog when he fought Quinton “Rampage” Jackson for the title in 2008. Like so many other times in his career, Griffin won UFC gold – despite being the underdog. After his November of 2009 victory over Tito Ortiz, Griffin finally realized it was time to have surgery on his shoulder. Claiming that he’s fought with shoulder pain since 2006, Griffin will fight injury-free for the first time in nearly five years. Although both Franklin and Griffin claim to be injury-free entering this fight, it will be interesting to see if ring rust plays any factor in either fighter’s game plan. Having not fought in over 14 months, Griffin let the media know last week that he was looking forward to getting into the Octagon but wasn’t looking forward to the ring rust. When the gate closes, look for Griffin to potentially push the pace of the fight more than we have become accustomed to seeing Griffin fight. Instead of trying to keep the fight standing, look for Griffin, who recently received his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu from multiple-time world champ Robert Drysdale, to potentially try and win his eighth fight by way of submission. Along with trying to push the pace, look for Griffin to use his size difference to drain the stamina of Franklin. For Franklin, who is coming off an injury himself, look for him to try and keep the fight standing – while using his presumed speed advantage to stay away from to clinch of his stronger opponent. With both fighters known for their cardio, the fighter who gases just a little at first will more than likely be the fighter who walks out of the Octagon with his head down in disappointment.
JON JONES VS. RYAN BADER Both Jon Jones and Ryan Bader know the importance of leaving the Octagon on Saturday night with their arm raised in the air. With a victory, both fighters know that a shot at UFC gold will be on the horizon. With both fighters knowing what a win will do for their career, they know the consequences of losing. A loss will move one of them back into the middle of the pack – with a title shot only seen in their dreams. When both fighters know the significance of a fight, everyone watching will be in for a real treat. Bruce Buffer recently described Jon Jones as “the future Muhammad Ali of MMA” and it’d be hard for anyone to argue with that comparison. At only 23 years old, Jones has quickly put himself into the thick of the light heavyweight division title hunt. With an overall professional record of 11-1, Jones has notable wins over Stephan Bonner, Brandon Vera, and Vladimir Matyushenko. Ironically, the fight where he looked at his best, Jones ultimately lost. Despite pummeling Matt Hamill in every aspect of the game in the first round of their fight, the badly broken down Hamill ended up winning the fight. Right before everyone presumed the fight was going to be stopped – adding another TKO victory to Jones’ record – the fight was stopped because of an illegal elbow. Hamill was unable to continue – thus costing Jones a victory. Although on paper Jones has a loss on his record, fight fans and Hamill himself considered it a victory for Jones. A three-time Pac 10 wrestling champion and winner of season eight of The Ultimate Fighter, Ryan Bader has yet to suffer a defeat in 13 professional fights. Since winning a six-figure UFC contract in 2008, Bader has won all four of his appearances in the Octagon – most recently winning a unanimous decision over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Bader will likely try to make Saturday’s fight more of a wrestling match pretty quickly in the opening minutes of the first round. Although Bader has made great strides in his standup ability over the past two years, look for him to try and avoid the unorthodox standup of Jones that is nearly impossible to find someone to mimic during training. As much as Bader will be looking to keep the action on the canvas, Jones equally has the desire to keep the action standing. Although Jones has made a name for himself with his striking ability, he also is a Greco Roman standout and former junior college champion. Don’t be surprised if suddenly Jones uses his own wrestling to bring the action to the mat – trying to ground and pound his way into forcing the referee to stop the fight. CARLOS EDUARDO ROCHA VS. JAKE ELLENBERGER Originally scheduled to fight Jon Fitch on Saturday night, Jake Ellenberger was preparing to fight a top contender – hoping a victory would put him in line to fight for UFC gold. Instead, his original opponent was pulled out to fight BJ Penn instead. Although wanting to get a shot at fighting Fitch, Ellenberger didn’t dwell on it long. He quickly focused solely on Carlos Eduardo Rocha. After losing his UFC debut to Carlos Condit, Ellenberger has gone on to win his next two fights – defeating Mike Pyle and John Howard. With an impressive win on Saturday night, Ellenberger knows that a title shot will be one step closer than it is today. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Carlos Eduardo Rocha made a successful UFC debut when he submitted Kris McCray at UFC 122. Still undefeated at 9-0, Rocha believes he has the ability needed to win the welterweight crown. Although he’s had a successful start to his career, he knows that a victory over Ellenberger will move him up the division ladder and add prestige to his name. Although many don’t know who Rocha is, he knows there’s no better way to get recognition in the sport than putting on an exciting show on Pay-Per-View. In another clash of styles, look for Ellenberger to try and keep the fight standing – waiting for the chance to use his heavy hands to stop the fight and win the “Knockout of the Night” bonus. Rocha, however, doesn’t see either of those things happening. In his mind, a submission will end the fight and he will walk away with “Submission of the Night” honors. MIGUEL TORRES VS. ANTONIO BANUELOS October 28, 2010 is a day that both Miguel Torres and Antonio Banuelos will never forget. On that day, both fighters were made aware that their service in the WEC was no longer needed. When fighters in the years past heard this, that would lead a fighter to figure out where their career would go next. But that wasn’t the case that day – both fighters would move to the biggest stage in the world and fight in the UFC. Fighting out of Montreal, Quebec by way of East Chicago, IN., Miguel Torres will bring an outstanding 37-3 record into his UFC debut. While fighting in the WEC, Torres became one of the most successful and recognizable figures in the history of the organization. In 2008, Torres defeated Chase Beebe to become the bantamweight champion. Torres defended his belt three times before eventually losing it to Brian Bowles. Prior to being defeated by Bowles, Torres was considered by some to be the best fighter, pound for pound in the world – winning 17 straight fights. After losing two straight, people quickly started to question whether he had anything left. Torres answered those questions by submitting Charlie Valencia in his last fight. Now that the bantamweight division has moved over to the UFC, Torres plans on introducing himself to the UFC in dominating fashion. Winner of four out of his last five fights, Antonio Banuelos knows the importance of winning his UFC debut – especially being that his debut is on the Pay-Per-View portion of the card. Banuelos knows that an impressive victory could potentially lead him to a new fan base, but more importantly, a victory will move him one step closer to a UFC title shot. In a contrast of fighting styles, look for Torres to use his long reach advantage and standup skills to keep the fight standing. Where Banuelos, on the other hand, will look to bring the action of the fight to the canvas – where he can use his ground and pound to end the fight. Taking Torres to the ground can be easier said than done though. With Torres’ long reach, Banuelos will need to be careful to not get caught by a brutal punch or powerful knee to the face.
Melvin Guillard (left) | Fernando Allende/NY Post/Splash
Fresh off a head-scratching decision loss to former lightweight champion Sean Sherk, the world-ranked Evan Dunham returns to the cage against dangerous Melvin Guillard in the UFC “Fight for the Troops 2” headliner on Saturday at Fort Hood in Killeen, Texas.
The event also showcases a pair of heavyweight bouts of interest -- Matt Mitrione vs. Tim Hague and Patrick Barry vs. Joey Beltran -- and assorted matchups from the lighter weight classes.
A closer look at the main card follows:
The Matchup: As usual, Guillard brings a lot of on-paper advantages into a match, but how he will apply them is the lingering wild card. He’s a powerful striker and exceptionally strong. Dunham enjoyed a great 2010, scoring significant wins over “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 8 winner Efrain Escudero (submission) and Xtreme Couture Mixed Martial Arts representative Tyson Griffin (decision). After a disputed decision defeat to Sherk in September, Dunham’s first career loss means very little. He remains a lightweight to watch.
Dunham will be tasked with controlling the range against Guillard, who excels at shuffling in and out of striking distance and letting big bombs go. Guillard does not want to get into a battle on the mat, where Dunham excels at transitions, threatening with submissions and constantly putting foes on the defensive. As such, Guillard will have to work his range appropriately, utilizing his strikes before getting away clean. Dunham is strong in the clinch, using his height and tie-ups to bang away and score points.
On paper, as was the case in his fight with Nate Diaz at UFC Fight Night 19, this looks like one Guillard can win. However, he made a key error against Diaz and was submitted by the Stockton, Calif., battler, showing again how a single mistake can cost one dearly inside the Octagon, especially against talented lightweights.
The Pick: Dunham is exactly that kind of guy, and he will survive a tough moment or two before finding an opening and exploiting it, winning by submission in the second. This will serve as a major chin test for Dunham, but it is also the kind of bout in which he can show his mettle and prove whether he deserves to move up another notch in the rankings.
The Matchup: Originally slated to challenge Aldo for the 145-pound crown, Grispi switches gears here, as Poirier fills in for the injured Brazilian superman. It could turn into a break for Grispi, who, at 22, has a major upside and could use some more seasoning before he takes on Aldo.
With slam-bang submissions and improving stand-up, Grispi now faces Poirier, whose confidence is no doubt surging off his 53-second knockout of Zachary Micklewright last month at WEC 52. Grispi reeled off four wins in the WEC, totaling just less than seven minutes of action. He is a very talented, young fighter with serious game.
Poirier has to do something significant early to win this one. If he falls behind quickly, he will find himself in big trouble, because Grispi has a penchant for finishes that come out of nowhere. Look for Poirier to try and do just that, with Grispi settling into a rhythm and picking his spots to discourage his opponent.
The Pick: Grispi’s ground game is exceptionally good, but you would like to see him in a long fight, where he can show his gas tank and how he adapts to adversity and changing tactical situations. I think he will have to do some of that here, as he wears down Poirier en route to a second-round submission.
Rare is it when a champion goes into a title defense as an underdog, but UFC lightweight boss Frankie Edgar is used to defying the odds. Facing Gray Maynard at UFC 125 “Resolution” on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, the bookmakers have made the New Jersey scrapper an 8-5 underdog against the man who beat him two years ago.
Edgar -- whose UFC debut was a thrilling decision win over Tyson Griffin -- was not supposed to beat B.J. Penn, either, much less twice in a row, but he did. Now, he finds himself atop a lightweight division that is a veritable dog pile of talent. With Maynard coming to knock him off, WEC champion Anthony Pettis waits in the wings for the winner.
It seems fitting that lightweights, once a forgotten weight class in stateside MMA, headline a show that does not feature a heavyweight match. Heavyweights provide mainstream allure as main card matches and likely highlight fodder when staged on the prelims. How quickly the world changes, and Edgar knows it as well as anyone. For him to continue his string of impressive and inspiring wins, he will have to present a better version than the one Maynard schooled in their first match.
UFC Lightweight Championship
The Matchup: If their first bout and track records are any indication, this one probably goes the distance. That’s because neither man has built a reputation as a finisher -- and deservedly so. With 23 wins between them, and 16 of those by decision, whoever emerges as UFC lightweight champion will probably suffer from a lot more criticism than even George St. Pierre deals with these days. That said, with a five-round bout on tap that is almost certain to go deep, strategy and round-winning tactics are at a premium here.
In their April 2008 match, Maynard was simply too big and strong, using that to pull down Edgar into his game. While Edgar is exciting to watch even when he is not stopping people, Maynard relies on a reductive style that sucks people into the kind of fight he likes.
Maynard has proven too good a wrestler for almost any lightweight to have a realistic chance of taking and keeping him down, and he has adapted his stand-up to play to those strengths, firing off right hands, moving his head to avoid blows and rarely throwing kicks. He keeps his feet in proper position should wrestling opportunities develop but, at times, seems too willing to stand. Against Roger Huerta, he nearly frittered away the match until coming to his senses and taking down Huerta in the third, dominating the round and sealing the decision.
For Edgar to win, he has to bring exceptional speed and striking decisions into the equation. In his two wins over Penn, you could never guess what he was going to do next, which is why he was able to win. To achieve victory here, Edgar will have to outwork Maynard, knowing full well he is going to have to go five rounds to do it. It is critical that he score an equal amount of takedowns to get the decision and not get stuck in defensive positions.
Maynard must have been tickled pink when Edgar won the rematch against Penn. An on-point Penn seems the perfect guy to beat Maynard, but Edgar appears to play right into his hands.
Maynard should concentrate on clinching whenever possible and countering Edgar when the champion flits in and out. Instead of battling to take the spry Edgar to the floor -- he is incredibly hard to keep there -- Maynard should just push him against the fence early on, dirty box, rinse and repeat. It is a very tiring kind of match to fight, especially for the guy getting shoved against the fence, and Edgar is not going to win this one if he lacks the room necessary to apply his superior speed.
If and when Maynard does take down the champion and establish a base of operations there, there is nothing wrong with hitting a guy 20 times in a row in the ribs while he works to get out from under you. It may not be pretty or rousing but, then again, neither was college football in the 1960s, when Ohio State was running the ball 60 times a game. Whatever wins.
This bout will probably spark some strong discussions about how MMA should be scored, as Edgar has improved enough to be more effective standing than in the first fight; Maynard has five rounds to impose his superior wrestling and size.
The Pick: Whether fast, glancing combinations count more than a takedown and ho-hum ground work from the top remains a matter of opinion, but that is where I see Maynard driving this one. He just seems to be a bad style matchup for the champion. Maynard by unanimous decision.
Marlon Sandro (black trunks) vs. Masanori Kanehara | Taro Irei/Sherdog.com
Sengoku Raiden Championship promoter World Victory Road has saved the best for last.
After going a cost-cutting route in 2010, focusing almost exclusively on domestic talent and lighter-weight classes, Sengoku “Soul of Fight” has assembled an epic 28-fight card for its year-end-show. From muay Thai and kickboxing matches to excellent female fights, an “SRC vs. Dream” three-parter, and even a meaningful championship bout -- fans with tickets to WVR’s almost-New Year’s Eve extravaganza are in for a whole day of martial arts action.
Below, we take a look at the most competitive and high-profile bouts on the card.
In the year’s biggest 145-pound bout outside of WEC, SRC featherweight champion Sandro will make the first defense of his belt against Shooto title-holder Hioki.
A teammate of pound-for-pound phenomenon Jose Aldo and numerous WEC standouts at Nova União, Sandro has transformed himself from a conservative Brazilian jiu-jitsu player into a vicious knockout machine over the past 18 months.
Hioki has been a mainstay on the Shooto circuit for the past eight years. At only 27 years of age, the dangerous submission fighter already has 28 professional bouts under his belt, with 22 wins. In May, he captured the Shooto 143-pound title, defeating “Lion” Takeshi Inoue in a hotly-contested bout. Hioki was considered the odds-on favorite to win Sengoku’s 2009 featherweight tournament, but had to bow out due to a concussion sustained in his semifinal victory over eventual winner Masanori Kanehara.
Despite being the less experienced fighter, Sandro should come into the fight as the favorite. Not only is the Brazilian defending champion, but his last three bouts have seen him pulverize three highly-regarded Japanese veterans -- Yuji Hoshino, Tomonari Kanomatao and Kanehara -- with a trio of brutal knockouts in exactly 200 seconds combined.
To avoid the same fate, Hioki must either use his reach advantage or work the clinch. Under no circumstance does he want to meet Sandro at the Brazilian’s striking distance. Even though he has been around for quite a while, Hioki’s standup game remains underdeveloped. He is a decent kicker, but his hands are nothing that will strike fear into the heart of a hard-nosed veteran like Sandro.
Prediction: The safe bet is on Sandro to win another unanimous decision. Don’t be surprised if he posterizes Hioki with another first-round knockout, though.
Here’s a closer look at the supporting act to the final WEC show, Saturday night’s WEC 53 undercard, with analysis and picks.
A long time ago, Menjivar was considered one of the best 145 pounders in the world. The problem was that there was barely a 145-pound division available outside of a handful of Japanese promotions. Menjivar fought Matt Serra in the UFC and was Georges St. Pierre’s professional debut, both at welterweight. He also gave then-rising star Urijah Faber a very good scrap in 2006 before their bout was stopped due to what was ruled an illegal kick by Menjivar. At one time, he was bad news for anyone under 155 pounds.
After nearly four years off, Menjivar returned in June and now drops to 135 against Pickett, who has an exciting style and striking geared toward MMA. Pickett has given solid accounts of himself in his win over Damacio Page and a loss to title challenger Scott Jorgensen, showing good hands and outstanding conditioning in both distance-going bouts. Pickett sets up punches very well, varying a snappy lead hook with a left uppercut, and using good defensive wrestling to spring up from the mat.
At one time, Menjivar would have been readily favored to win this type of match, but between his age, inactivity, dropping a weight class and the general evolution of the sport, it’s hard to tell. MMA has changed considerably since his heyday a half-decade ago.
If Menjivar can close the gap, get takedowns and control Pickett, he can win a decision. If not, he’ll be picked apart and lose on the cards against a new breed of fighter. In a coin-flip, I’ll go with Pickett.
Not to be outdone by the UFC 124 main card, Saturday’s preliminary lineup is filled with dangerous veterans and hungry newcomers with a gleam for greatness in their eyes.
Hazelett is dropping down from welterweight, where he scored impressive submissions in wins over Tamdan McCrory and Josh Burkman. At 6-foot-1-inch, he’ll be extremely tall for the weight. Fighting smaller guys will make his game more effective, provided he can handle the cut.
Bocek, a veteran of the submission wrestling circuit before turning pro in 2004, is a ground-based fighter with a lot of stamina and not a lot of standup, though he has proven willing to let his strikes go when forced.
This one comes down to how effective Hazelett can be at 155 in a bout that is likely to go into deep waters unless Hazelett scores an early submission -- no easy feat against the savvy Bocek. The pick is Hazelett, who can use his standup to wear his opponent down and pick up points, while neutralizing Bocek on the ground and getting the better of the positional battle on his way to a decision.
Georges St. Pierre (red trunks) vs. Josh Koscheck: Sherdog.com
There’s nothing like a couple months’ worth of reality television to build a rivalry, and in the case of UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and challenger Josh Koscheck, their running duel on “The Ultimate Fighter 12” has supplied adequate, if not overwhelming, pre-fight buzz.
That’s because St. Pierre resides in the magical zone which few champions ever reach, simultaneously at the top of his physical and mental games. Meanwhile, Koscheck’s limited verbal repartee makes one hope he’s done a lot more work coming up with new strategies for the fight itself.
But, hey, everybody likes a throwdown to settle some bad blood, right?
Not every reality show finale can match the unabated hype of Tito Ortiz and Ken Shamrock’s second meeting. Nor, thankfully, does every finale lead to the dreadful letdown which that shameful rematch eventually did.
Koscheck is still an exceptionally gifted fighter with the right skill set to pose problems for the dominant champ. There are a handful of 170-pounders on the planet who could hope to outwrestle St. Pierre in an MMA match, and right now, former NCAA champ Koscheck is on the short list.
Here’s a breakdown of the UFC 124 main event, as well as the rest of the card.
In contemplating the possibilities of a rematch, I try and apply the Nick Diaz-Jeremy Jackson Rule whenever possible.
The Diaz-Jackson Rule is a handy reminder that anything is possible in a fight -- so much so that one contest may not accurately represent the relative skills and likely outcome of a bout. Both fighters scored one-sided first-round stoppages in their first two bouts. Diaz landed a third-round submission in the spirited rubber match, a fight far more competitive than the two which preceded it. Each fight, watched separately, would invalidate the likelihood of the other two.
It’s a pretty good rule, and one which you are welcome to invoke in any argument when discussing rematches, MMA in general, climate change, or whatever.
That’s why I think Josh Koscheck could have a pretty good chance at unseating Georges St. Pierre, despite all the indicators suggesting otherwise. GSP has steadily improved since their first match, which he won by one-sided decision, dominating Koscheck and outwrestling him, to boot. Koscheck’s attempts at mind games while the two coached “The Ultimate Fighter” fell flat. Despite this, it seems too easy to simply check the box here and expect more of the same.
To pull off the upset, Koscheck will have to make something big happen early. He can’t concede the first takedown, and has to be more effective on the feet. While St. Pierre is a dynamic striker with a ridiculously deep bag of tricks, Koscheck tends to rely on a big overhand right as his bread and butter move.
The problem with attacking St. Pierre is that his takedowns are the best in the sport and he can knock you silly. As a result, opponents get paralyzed contemplating all the terrible things he could possibly do. Koscheck has to come out banging and aggressive, and keep pushing forward. Standing around and waiting for something to develop is almost always going to be a losing strategy against St. Pierre, who has too many options against anyone at 170 pounds.
Koscheck has to go for broke to win this one, pulling a page from the Matt Serra playbook. He’s either going to land something huge in the opening round, plant GSP on his back, and pound him out, or not. If it’s the latter, look for GSP to craftily pick his moment to take Koscheck down, at which point he’ll thump him up, improve position, and plant all the ugly seeds of doubt in Kos’ head. It’s a grim thing St. Pierre does to opponents, and you can see it on their faces when everything they try only makes things worse.
If this goes past one round and Koscheck doesn’t land a big punch for an early stoppage, I like St. Pierre by a fourth-round win, mostly because he seems peeved and amused at Koscheck’s attempts to rattle him. St. Pierre also probably wants to end it inside the distance to quiet the critics knocking his string of decisions in recent bouts.
If “Kos” does pull the trick, I’ll be the first to cite the Diaz-Jackson Rule.
Benson Henderson (right) | Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
With two meaningful championship bouts for its closing act before the organization is folded into the UFC, WEC 53 should be a swan song to remember.
WEC’s three weight classes -- 155, 145, and 135 pounds -- will bring additional storylines and marketable talent to the UFC. The big question: how will the WEC lightweights fare in the UFC’s deep 155-pound division? One indicator could come when the winner of Thursday’s main event faces the UFC lightweight champion in 2011 to unify the titles.
Below, a closer look at the WEC 53 main card.
If you wanted to make a match that would showcase the dynamic talents of the lightweight division, it’d be hard to beat this one on pure potential. That’s because Henderson and Pettis exemplify everything good about the emerging breed of mixed martial artists. Both are athletic, finely-tuned competitors who mix tactical intelligence with a penchant for eye-popping moves.
Neither guy is afraid to take risks, which is why this is an outstanding match. Diametrically opposed in styles, Henderson will want a slower pace on the feet, but a fast-paced bout on the ground, while Pettis will likely look to utilize his dynamic standup. Pettis was impressive in battling Shane Roller in his last bout, a gutsy third-round triangle choke victory where he got the better of the ground battle while showing off his trademark flashy striking.
Henderson, meanwhile, is developing his standup, but has a well-honed wrestling base. He closes the gap as quick as any fighter you’ll see and has a sense of positional awareness that makes regaining the initiative a tough thing for opponents caught in bad spots. Henderson will need to be very careful while working his way in for a takedown, as Pettis has a clear advantage on the feet.
The key for Pettis will be mixing up his strikes and exploiting the scant openings Henderson leaves while closing the gap to tie up. If Pettis can’t stuff takedowns and tighten up defensively on the feet -- Roller was able to tag him with some fairly telegraphed shots -- Henderson will be able to take him down and grind out an early lead which could be tough to overcome.
Off his back, Pettis has a good defensive guard, while Henderson is outstanding at escaping submissions and keeping the pressure on. For ground geeks, this will be a very fast-paced, yet subtle battle on the mat, should it go there.
This is a very competitive match with subplots galore, and while I think Henderson may match up better with some of the UFC’s top lightweights, we’ll go with the upset here and take Pettis via fourth-round knockout.
Who wins at Strikeforce’s final show of 2010 remains a worthwhile question, so let us take a closer look for a breakdown of the fights.
The Matchup: As the cadre of MMA’s legends creeps toward inevitable replacement by the newer breed, Henderson soldiers along and will probably be the last of the circa-2000 stars left at the world-class level. His last performance, a loss to Jake Shields, saw him come up flat and out-grappled in a bout where his huge right hand scored early, only to see Shields dominate en route to a five-round decision win. He will be better returning to 205, where he will not have to cut huge amounts of weight. Plus, his takedowns are still dominant at light heavyweight.
Sobral, meanwhile, does pretty much everything well without one world-beating skill set, at least at the world-class level. His stand-up is functionally effective, with good jiu-jitsu, though he is probably not dangerous enough from his back to threaten Henderson, whose submission defense is excellent.
Matching up against Sobral, Henderson has a lot of options open to him. He does not have to worry about being outwrestled or outstruck. Henderson’s big right hand remains a dangerous weapon that can be used to set up room for a takedown or land simply of its own accord to change fights. With room to operate and think about what he wants to do, Henderson’s age and mileage are not likely to be readily exploited; Shields survived his opening round onslaught to counter with solid takedowns and top control to keep Henderson on the defensive, but Sobral seems unlikely to follow suit unless he can hurt Henderson standing and pounce.
Sobral’s decision win in June in a 195-pound catchweight bout against Robbie Lawler was not particularly impressive. The two largely negated one another, as Sobral seemingly sleepwalked to a snoozer decision. At times, he has been a far cry from the effective fighter that worked his way to a shot against then-UFC champion Chuck Liddell, with a trio of submission wins in the organization. Some fighters simply are inconsistent, and Sobral appears to be the prototype. At the top of his game, however, he has proven himself a very talented fighter.
To be effective against Henderson, Sobral will have to land something significant early and dictate where the fight goes, preferably moving into top position during an exchange or a scramble, where he can work his jiu-jitsu to control position and land stamina-draining strikes. Essentially, Sobral will have to play like a football team waiting for a turnover.
The Pick: Henderson should be able to pace himself, pick his spots and take the fight to the mat when he wants. He will control from top position, landing sporadic ground-and-pound while wearing down Sobral en route to a third-round stoppage.
Bookmakers do not offer betting lines on predicting “Fight of the Night,” but if they did, the UFC 123 “Rampage vs. Machida” prelims would have some alluring choices on Saturday at The Palace of Auburn Hills in Auburn Hills, Mich.
The Matchup: With two elite college wrestlers colliding, fans know this one figures to provide stirring theater. The psychological aspect in a wrestler-versus-wrestler match brings with it all sorts of subplots -- namely, answering the question as to who is the better wrestler. Think Mark Coleman-Dan Severn, Randy Couture-Tito Ortiz and Matt Hughes-Frank Trigg.
Simpson has looked like a solid UFC-caliber middleweight, despite the fact that he only has eight professional fights under his belt. In a close decision win against Tom Lawlor, Simpson showed the kind of resilience and striking ability rarely seen in most former collegiate wrestling standouts at this phase in their careers. Against Chris Leben at “The Ultimate Fighter 11” Finale, he did well early on, only to fall prey to “The Crippler” and his trademark hailstorm of blows, which usually fly when he looks to be dead on his feet.
Munoz has rebounded from a brutal promotional debut against Matt Hamill at UFC 96, soldiering his way down to the 185-pound division. He put together a streak of three consecutive wins until he ran into the human roadblock that goes by the name of Yushin Okami. Munoz’s striking is developing, and his ground-and-pound is top-notch. Ask Ryan Jensen and Kendall Grove. However, Munoz still has issues on his feet and has been quite hittable throughout his career.
The key for Munoz against Simpson will be using his hands to set up the takedown. He will occasionally try for follow-up shots when opponents stuff his first one simply because he is such an accomplished wrestler that he can get away with it. Check his first fight in the WEC with Chuck Grigsby in which Munoz simply willed himself to a takedown after failing on his first try. Munoz will probably not go this route out of respect for Simpson’s skills, at least not early.
Simpson has a stout right hand and decent footwork, so it becomes even more critical that Munoz set up a solid shot. Munoz tends to switch back and forth between southpaw and conventional stances, which could be a clue to his tactics. Takedowns are easier from the southpaw position, as the opponent’s leg rests half a step closer, but it works both ways.
The Pick: Simpson and Munoz should provide an exciting fight, and I believe Munoz answers some questions and grinds out a third-round stoppage via ground-and-pound. It will not be pretty or easy, but it has always been fun to watch two great wrestlers go at it.
Joe Lauzon’s path to the UFC is unlike nearly everyone’s. After debuting with a spectacular first round knockout of former lightweight champion Jens Pulver in 2006, Lauzon went on The Ultimate Fighter to tune his skills and build his name even more. And although Lauzon was defeated in the semi-finals, it was evident that he was ready for the biggest stage in the world. Since appearing on season five of TUF, Lauzon has gone 5-2, and in his best performance inside the Octagon since the show, Lauzon destroyed Gabe Ruediger in a little over two minutes of the first round at UFC 118. And whether winning or losing, Lauzon has looked better and better each time he’s entered the Octagon. He’s hoping that trend continues on Saturday night
For George Sotiropoulos, fighting had always been his dream – regardless of what it took to become a fighter in the UFC. He traveled the world in search of the best people to train with, and it didn’t matter where he slept or what he ate. As long as he was training, Sotiropoulos didn’t mind. At one point, he was living inside a gym and could count all the money he had in one hand. Hearing a story like this made you realize something; Sotiropoulos didn’t get into fighting because of the possible fame and fortune that could come with it. He just wants to fight. Having won all six of his fights since being on season six of The Ultimate Fighter, Sotiropoulos is quickly moving up the lightweight ladder. If he’s able to win in convincing fashion, he may only be one more win away from getting his shot at UFC gold.
It’s going to be interesting to see where this fight ends up. Both fighters are well rounded and won’t panic in any position. Look for Lauzon to try and set up a submission – if he’s able to bring the action down. Although Sotiropoulos is comfortable on the ground, he may try to keep the fight standing – feeling that’s where he has the advantage.
Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch
A 4 time All-American and 2008 NCAA wrestling champion for Penn State University, Phil Davis turned pro as a mixed martial artist in October of 2008 and it only took him four fights to catch the eye of the UFC. Since making his debut back at UFC 109, Davis has won all three of his fights, defeating Brian Stann, Alexander Gustafsson, and Rodney Wallace. At 26 years old, Davis knows not to look ahead of anyone in arguably the toughest division in the UFC. With all the talent in 205-pound division, one loss can be detrimental to his career. Although he has fought three times in the UFC already, fighting on a Pay-Per-View will only do great things for his career if he can put on a great performance.
Despite having won three of the five fights he’s had in the Octagon, Tim Boetsch has been unable to string together multiple wins in a row. Having won his latest outing at UFC 117, Boetsch is looking to get on a winning streak to move his way up the light heavyweight ladder. Although he has shown signs of being a real force, Boetsch just hasn’t been able to put anything together for a long period of time. At 29 years old, this may be his best opportunity to start making some noise in this division.
When people first look at Phil Davis, people often marvel at how big he is. Looking more like a heavyweight than a light heavyweight, look for him to use his size and strength to bring the action of the fight to the canvas. If he’s able to bring Boetsch down, ‘The Barbarian’ may be in trouble. Look for Boetsch to stall – hoping the fight gets stood up. In a contrast in styles, look for Boetsch to try and keep the fighting standing – looking for a knockout.
Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falcao
Fighting out of Tulsa, Oklahoma, Gerald Harris, who was a product of season seven of The Ultimate Fighter, is currently riding a three fight winning streak in the UFC – with wins over John Salter, Mario Miranda, and most recently Dave Branch. Although Harris has won all three fights inside of the Octagon, he’s won nine fights in a row since being defeated by Amir Sadollah (who ended up winning season seven) on episode seven of TUF. And two of his three fights inside of the Octagon have ended with Dana White handing him a check for Knockout of the Night.
With an overall professional record of 25-3, 1 NC, Maiquel Falcao will make his Octagon debut on Saturday night. On Saturday night, Falcao will undoubtedly be facing the toughest and most important test of his professional career. Being relatively unknown to most MMA fans, that perception could quickly change if the fight goes the way he plans. There is no easier or better way to jump into the spotlight than by having a solid performance when fighting on Pay-Per-View. Although it’s the best opportunity a UFC fighter can get when entering the Octagon for the first time, it can also come with the most pressure. Depending on the person, knowing that for the first time in your fighting career, millions of people will be watching either brings the best out of you or leads to a poor performance. We will just have to wait and see how he responds.
Look for Harris to use his strong wrestling skills to try and bring the action of the fight to the canvas right away. If he’s able to bring the action down, it’ll be interesting to see Falcao’s ability to fight off his back when Harris is throwing non-stop elbows. On the other hand, Falcao, who has knocked out his opponent in 21 of his 25 victories, will look to keep the fight standing. Hoping to end the fight in dramatic fashion, Falcao knows that a highlight reel knockout will quickly make him a name people will remember. Being that it’s his first outing in the Octagon, he needs to be careful to not go out swinging for the fences. Doing that would cut down on his energy tank and make him more likely to be taken down and beaten as the fight enters its last few minutes.
Matt Hughes vs. BJ Penn
Matt Hughes and BJ Penn first met in what would end up becoming a trilogy back at UFC 46 in 2004. In that fight, Penn secured a rear naked choke in the first round to win the fight and take the welterweight title away from Hughes. Over two and a half years later, at UFC 63, Hughes finally had his opportunity to avenge the loss. Hughes did exactly that – winning by TKO in the third round. Now tied up at a win apiece, Saturday night will be the rubber match in what has turned out to be a great rivalry between two of the greatest MMA fighters in the world.
Arguably the greatest and most dominant champion in the history of the UFC, two-time welterweight champion Matt Hughes has won a record 18 times inside of the Octagon and is looking to make it 19 on Saturday. First winning the welterweight title at UFC 34, Hughes defeated Carlos Newton by a controversial slam. Less than a year later, Hughes silenced the critics by defeating Newton once again – this time in dominating fashion. From March of 2002 through September of 2006, Hughes went on to win 11 of his 12 fights during that span – with notable victories over Sean Sherk, Frank Trigg (twice), Georges St-Pierre, and legendary jiu-jitsu artist Royce Gracie, and he also avenged his only loss during that period to BJ Penn. Although Hughes had previously beaten St-Pierre, the roles were reversed back at UFC 65 – St-Pierre defeated Hughes and became the new welterweight champion. After returning with a win over Chris Lytle, Hughes was given another shot at St-Pierre but lost the rubber match. Many believed after his second loss to St-Pierre that the welterweight torch had finally been passed, and at first, it seemed as if many were right. For the first time in his UFC career, Hughes had lost two straight fights when he was defeated by Thiago Alves. But then came three-straight victories against Matt Serra, Renzo Gracie, and Ricardo Almeida, and with a win over Penn, he may get even closer to a chance at one last title shot.
Having fought in multiple divisions in his career, BJ Penn has won UFC gold in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions. Prior to winning the welterweight title, Penn had two different opportunities to win the lightweight title. At UFC 35, Penn fought for the first time in his UFC career with a championship belt on the line. Unfortunately for Penn, he lost a majority decision against Jens Pulver. After winning two straight fights, Penn once again let UFC gold slip through his fingers when he fought to a draw against Caol Uno at UFC 41. Feeling that he’d be better suited for the welterweight division, Penn was finally able to win UFC gold at UFC 46 by beating the very fighter he’s scheduled to meet on Saturday night, Matt Hughes. After winning the UFC welterweight title, Penn stepped away from the UFC, and after returning in 2006, Penn lost his first two fights back in the Octagon to Georges St-Pierre and Hughes. In his next six fights, Penn won five and the UFC lightweight title – with notable wins over Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. But Penn wasn’t able to match Frankie Edgar stylistically and he lost both fights and his title to the New Jersey native. After two straight defeats, Penn has moved back to the welterweight division, and he will finally look to settle the score with Hughes.
Having already fought each other twice already, both fighters know precisely what to expect from one another. Look for Penn to try and keep the fight standing so he can exploit the area where he has the most advantages. If he’s able to keep the fight off the canvas, it could end up being a long night in Auburn Hills for Hughes. On the other side, look for Hughes to try and time a kick or punch from Penn – in order to set up a takedown. That may be easier said than done, however. Quite possibly the biggest strength Penn has is his balance. He’s nearly impossible to bring down early in a fight. Hughes will need to try and push the pace – testing Penn’s cardio. If he’s able to bring the fight to the ground, look for him to use his patented ground and pound. Regardless of what position Penn is in, Hughes will need to be careful of being caught in a submission. Lyoto Machida vs. Rampage Jackson
Both Lyoto Machida and Rampage Jackson have held UFC gold around their waist in the past two years, and on Saturday night, they have the same goal in mind on Saturday night when the Octagon gate closes – to win and get another title shot. The winner of this fight won’t have far to look at a possible title shot but the loser of this fight will be on the outside looking in when it comes to getting back atop the divisional ladder.
In previous fights, Lyoto Machida would stay in his native Brazil to train, but feeling that he needed better partners to train with, Machida decided to stay in southern California to put together the best possible camp as possible. One of the few fighters today that train mainly in karate, the Dragon is a black belt in Machida Karate – a fighting style that his father developed. Known for his methodical fighting style, Machida has the ability to frustrate his opponents by keeping a slow pace and continuously moving – keeping his opponents guessing. Machida then uses his opponents’ frustration to his advantage when they inevitably will try to push the action and get into a brawl – that’s exactly what Machida wants. With his pinpoint accuracy, he’s generally able to end the fight by waiting for a mistake from his opponent. Machida won his first eight fights inside the Octagon – with notable wins over Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, and Mauricio Rua. After the close nature of his decision win over Rua at UFC 104, Machida stepped back into the Octagon with “Shogun” less than seven months later. This time however, Rua saw to it that the judges wouldn’t have a say in this fight by knocking Machida out in the first round. There was a point when many believed that Machida’s fighting style made it nearly impossible for him to get hit – let alone lose. Saturday night will be Machida’s first step at trying to put the fear back into his opponents, but more importantly, he’s looking to get back on track to reclaim the UFC light heavyweight championship belt.
Like his opponent, Quinton Jackson decided to have a change in scenery during his training camp for his fight on Saturday night. For the past few years, Jackson would leave his southern California home to travel across the pond to the Wolfslair gym in the United Kingdom. Wanting to still be around his children while training to fight Machida, Jackson brought out the usual members of the U.K. based Wolfslair gym to California to get him prepared for his bout with Machida. While fighting for PRIDE in Japan, it didn’t take long for Jackson to become a superstar all over Asia. Going 12-5 in the organization, Jackson beat notable fighters such as Kevin Randleman, Murilo Bustamante, Chuck Liddell, Ricardo Arona, and Murilo Rua. In 2007, Jackson made his UFC debut by knocking out Marvin Eastman. He then faced Liddell for the second time and took ‘The Iceman’s title via knockout. Rampage then became the first MMA fighter to unify the UFC and PRIDE belts when he defeated Dan Henderson. Although Rampage had become the new light heavyweight champion, his reign atop the division didn’t last long. Roughly 10 months later, Jackson lost his belt to Forrest Griffin. He returned to action only five months later when he knocked out Wanderlei Silva in the first round, and then defeated Keith Jardine by decision. In his most recent bout in May, Jackson lost a decision to heated rival Rashad Evans. Needless to say, Rampage knows the importance of Saturday night and he expects to fight accordingly.
It’ll be interesting to see the game plan Rampage and his camp come up with for Saturday night. Jackson is known for his aggressive style, and that isn’t the game plan you want to have when fighting a pinpoint striker like Machida. Look for Rampage to come in with a more methodical gameplan, in hopes of Machida trying to push the action. And although Rampage is subject to being submitted if the bout hits the floor and Machida has the ability to pull one off, what makes Rampage difficult is his knowledge and ability to use his strength to get out of a submission hold. But most likely the majority of the fight will be fought on the feet. Both fighters will pick their shots carefully – knowing their opponent has the power to finish the fight with one punch.
Tom Lawlor (left) file photo: Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
In the annals of MMA, there is only one thing cooler than the legendary “Just Bleed” guy or Dan Severn’s moustache, and that’s Tom Lawlor paying tribute to both in his UFC weigh-ins and entrances to the cage. In terms of pre-fight awesomeness, Lawlor consistently breaks the scale each time he weighs in.
For a guy that probably has the best sense of humor and awareness of obscure MMA memes to get hardcore fans’ attention, while enthralling casual types to watch him throw down, Lawlor fights his ass off, to boot. Since losing on season eight of “The Ultimate Fighter” to eventual winner Ryan Bader, he’s steadily improved, using his good wrestling and rock ‘em-sock ’em style to establish himself as a fan favorite.
Cote, meanwhile, has proven that you can never judge a guy from one fight. He’s been impressive in victories, showcasing his big right hand and decent takedown defense, underwritten with good conditioning and very good chin. He blitzed Kendall Grove in a bout where most perceived him as an easy opponent for the TUF 3 winner. Cote remains based largely in a standup style, hoping to avert a ground fight by waiting to land his heavy strikes.
Lawlor should be careful closing the gap, and establish the threat of his good takedowns early to keep Cote guessing. Lawlor is very good at transitioning between tie-ups and striking when in close, and has sneaky uppercuts from this position. He’ll probably want to feel out the standing situation a bit before letting the dogs loose, especially with a strong-chinned banger like Cote. The more tie-ups and grappling the bout has, the more it favors Lawlor, who should be able to take a close decision win in a good, but not great, bout.
In what many consider to be the biggest and most anticipated fight of 2010, Cain Velasquez and Brock Lesnar meet in the main event of UFC 121 Saturday night. And while much of the focus on this clash of titans, there are four other outstanding fights lined up on the main card. So before you enter your own picks read on for this event’s fantasy preview Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga A veteran of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter, Brendan Schaub is looking to move his winning streak to three on Saturday. After getting knocked out by Roy Nelson at the TUF10 finale, Schaub won his next two fights against Chase Gormley and Chris Tuchscherer. He knows that by beating a “name” opponent on Saturday night, it will help him get into the heavyweight division mix. Relatively unknown back in April of 2007, it didn’t take long for people to notice him. Although Gonzaga is known for his ground game, UFC 70 changed all that. Back at that bout in 2007, most people expected Mirko Cro Cop to do what he always does – use vicious kicks to end the fight. Using the blueprint on how Cro Cop beats his opponents, Gonzaga finished the fight by a kick to the head that people argue may be one of the greatest ever seen in the Octagon. But since defeating Cro Cop, Gonzaga has only gone 3-4 and is searching for the type of performance he had back in April of 2007. When the Octagon gate closes on Saturday night, regardless of what Gonzaga did to Cro Cop, look for Schaub to try and keep the fight standing while he looks for his opportunity to capitalize on a mistake made by Gonzaga – a mistake that he hopes will send him folding to the canvas. For Gonzaga, look for him to try and bring the action to the mat where he feels most comfortable and has the ability to finish the fight.
Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez With a professional record of 13-2, Paulo Thiago is entering this fight with a must-win mindset. Wanting to work his way to the top of the welterweight division, Thiago knows losing two fights in a row could severely hamper his prospects. The last time the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt entered the Octagon was back at UFC 115, where he lost a unanimous decision to Martin Kampmann. Prior to his fight with Kampmann, Thiago was riding a two-fight winning streak and was starting to move his way up the welterweight ladder. Now the thunder-fisted native of Brasilia, Brazil is looking to start a new hot streak and get back into the thick of the division. Diego Sanchez is hoping to avoid losing three straight fights for the first time in his career, after dropping consecutive fights to BJ Penn and John Hathaway. Sanchez, like his opponent, knows that a long losing streak in the UFC could be detrimental to his career. Sanchez has been in this place before – losing two straight fights to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. After losing to Koscheck and Fitch, Sanchez went on a tear – winning his next four fights and eventually earning a crack at the UFC lightweight title. This is Sanchez's first fight in the Octagon since reuniting with trainer Greg Jackson. With both fighters having similar fighting styles, it’ll be interesting to see how the fight goes. My hunch is that this will play out as an action-packed war on their feet. Sanchez likes a fast and furious pace, is known for great cardio, and will try to use that to his advantage.
Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill I remember being on the set of season three of The Ultimate Fighter when the coaches were about to pick their teams. At the time, I didn’t know anything about the fighters who were trying to win the coveted six-figure contract in the UFC. Prior to the coin flip, I asked Tito what he thought of that season's cast. He immediately raved about Matt Hamill and heaped high praise upon the gifted stranger. Sure enough, Ortiz picked Hamill to be on his team. Saturday night will be the first time that a coach on The Ultimate Fighter will fight someone whom he picked to be on his team. The longest reigning light heavyweight champion in the history of the UFC, Ortiz is fighting in quite possibly the biggest fight of his career, even though this fight isn’t for the title or even the evening's main event – scenarios that Ortiz has become accustomed to throughout his career. Having battled through neck and back pain for nearly seven years, Ortiz hasn’t won inside of the Octagon since he beat Ken Shamrock back in October of 2006. Although he hasn’t won since then Ortiz has only fought four times thanks to two surgeries. The last time we saw Ortiz in the Octagon was back at UFC 106 where he ended up on the short end of a split decision to Forrest Griffin. In his fight with Griffin, Ortiz showed the ring rust that would be expected from a fighter who hadn’t fought in 18 months. Saying that he is perfectly healthy going into Saturday’s fight after his neck surgery, we will see the rare occasion of a teacher fighting his former student. Having only started training in MMA six months prior to appearing on The Ultimate Fighter, Hamill was still seen as an early favorite to win the UFC contract, but an injury forced his early exit. Although his injury forced him off the show, Hamill showed that he had the ability to fight in the UFC when he made quick work of Jesse Forbes by defeating him in the first round on the TUF finale. Since beating Forbes, Hamill has gone 7-2. Currently riding a four fight-winning streak (one of them a disqualification victory over Jon Jones), Hamill knows that a victory over Ortiz will silence some of the naysayers that are out there. Both Ortiz and Hamill rely on their wrestling and are very familiar with each other's games, so it will be interesting to see the game plan each fighter tries to impose on Saturday night. Ortiz, often known for his superior cardio, will look to push the pace from the opening bell. By pushing the pace, Ortiz knows that as the fight progresses, he’ll have a better chance of bringing Hamill to the canvas to work his patented ground and pound. Hamill, a three-time NCAA national wrestling champion, may look to keep the fight standing given his heavy hands and sturdy chin because each time Hamill enters the Octagon, he seemingly looks better and better on his feet.
Martin Kampmann vs. Jake Shields Fighting out of Las Vegas, NV, Martin Kampmann holds a professional record of 17-3, with notable victories over Thales Leites, Jorge Rivera, Paulo Thiago, and Carlos Condit. A former Danish Thai boxing champion, Kampmann is particularly well respected on his feet. Although his main strength lies in the standup realm, his opponents often seem to sleep on his ground game. Kampmann, who is currently riding a two-fight winning-streak, knows that a victory on Saturday night will put him near the top of the welterweight division. It was never a matter of if Jake Shields would ever fight in the UFC, but when. Prior to making his debut on Saturday night, Shields steamrolled through opponents around the world has won 14 straight. Wanting to fight the best of the best, Shields believes that he has what it takes to become a champion in the UFC. And following a win at 185 pounds over Dan Henderson earlier this year, it will be interesting to see how Shields re-adjusts to life at 170. Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez The hulking frame, the outlandish and unpredictable personality. That is part of Brock Lesnar's appeal. He is arguably the most popular fighter to join the UFC thanks to a WWE career and a brief stint in the NFL. It’s rare that you see a world champion with a record of 5-1, but when you look at the results of his fights, it’s quite evident why Lesnar was given a title shot so early in his career. With notable victories over Randy Couture, Frank Mir, and Shane Carwin, Lesnar's only setback inside the Octagon was to Mir (a loss later avenged). Though Lesnar truly looks unstoppable at times, and the hype that surrounds his fast-evolving game is immense, it is important to remember that he is still human. After avenging his earlier loss to Mir at UFC 100, Lesnar went to do what he always does after a fight – hibernating with his family and hunting with buddies. In fact, it was a hunting trip to Canada that changed Lesnar's life and threatened his fight career. During the outing, Lesnar just didn’t feel right and he was eventually diagnosed with diverticulitis. At the time of his diagnosis, it seemed unlikely that the incredibly shrinking heavyweight would ever fight again. It was during that time Lesnar put things into perspective and realized what’s really important in life. After trying everything the doctors suggested, Lesnar tried holistic medicine and to his doctors’ surprise, he was cured. Although he was no longer sick, Lesnar had to build back the muscles and cardio he had lost before he got back into the Octagon. Although Lesnar didn’t look his best when beating Carwin -- taking a beating during round one under a hail of Carwin punches -- there’s something to be said for coming from behind against an opponent like Carwin during your first fight back after a career-threatening ailment. Now back to full strength, and pronouncing himself more confident than ever, Lesnar faces off against a ferocious foe who some believe is the future of the heavyweight division. Looking to become the first fighter of Mexican descent to become a heavyweight champion in the UFC, Cain Velasquez is probably the most complete fighter Lesnar has ever battled. Fighting out of San Jose, CA, Velasquez was a two-time All-American wrestler at Arizona State University. After winning his first two professional fights, Velasquez was signed to a UFC contract – racking up six straight wins to run his pro record to a perfect 8-0. Velasquez earned his title shot after knocking out “Minotauro” Nogueira in the first round of their fight at UFC 110. Other than going the distance with Cheick Kongo in a one-sided affair, Velasquez has ended five fights via strikes in the first round and two contests in the second round. He has never lost a round in his career. Brock Lesnar is known for tipping the scales right at the 265-pound heavyweight limit, where Velasquez on the other hand, will come in about 25-pounds lighter than his opponent. Look for Velasquez to try and use that speed to his advantage. Don’t expect him to stay in one place for too long – he will look to be continually moving around while throwing punches and kicks (and perhaps firing off knees when Lesnar shoots). Look for Lesnar to keep the same game plan as usual: Trying to connect with powerful right hands on his feet and putting Velasquez on his back with those bull-rushing double-leg takedowns. Ground and pound will likely be Lesnar's preferred blueprint. He knows that with his power and size advantages, it will be very difficult for Velasquez to get back to his feet.
Frankie Edgar (top) | Sherdog.com
Georges St. Pierre (red trunks) vs. Josh Koscheck: Sherdog.com